In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) is experiencing significant financial pressure, with its stock falling 18 per cent since the start of the Iran war, due to rising Brent crude prices, a weakening rupee, and disruptions to its West Asia and European flight networks caused by geopolitical tensions.
India's new manufacturing project announcements more than halved in the fourth quarter of FY26, falling 60 per cent sequentially and 78 per cent year-on-year to approximately 1.7 trillion, driven by global uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts in West Asia, and existing unutilised manufacturing capacity.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
There are hopes of a turnaround in overall corporate earnings after six quarters of single digit growth.
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Domestic passenger vehicle dispatches in India rose 10.6% in February, driven by utility vehicles and two-wheelers, but the industry remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions.
Automobile retail sales rose nearly 18 per cent year-on-year to over 27 lakh units in January, led by continued post-GST momentum, healthy rural cash flows on the back of harvest and weddings, and sustained demand visibility across freight, dealer's body FADA said on Tuesday.
Global rating Moody's on Monday affirmed India's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at 'Baa3' with a 'stable' outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. The rating agency also affirmed India's other short-term local-currency rating at P-3.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
India's defence sector is on the cusp of a 'super cycle' of growth, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts and a strong policy push towards indigenous manufacturing, with major players like BEL, HAL, and BDL poised for significant order inflows and technological advancements.
Passenger vehicle sales in India reached a record high of 4.7 million units in FY26, boosted by strong performances from major automakers and the implementation of GST 2.0.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Despite Iran allowing 'non-hostile vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz, marine insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated due to persistent high-risk classifications and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with experts cautioning that the threat of attacks and collateral damage still exists.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Passenger vehicle (PV) sales growth in India is expected to moderate to 3-5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in financial year 2027 (FY27) due to a high base and preponed replacement demand, according to a report released by India Ratings and Research on Thursday.
The Indian government is considering additional relief packages for vulnerable sectors like MSMEs to mitigate the impact of the ongoing West Asia crisis on the economy and inflation.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Thursday, helped by a rally in blue-chip Larsen & Toubro and the Economic Survey projecting the GDP growth of 6.8-7.2 per cent for the next fiscal.
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
Assessing where their funds are flowing gives traders a hidden edge in predicting the market direction and momentum.
A Jefferies report warns that the IT services sector is set for a structural shift due to AI, requiring talent and operating model overhauls and increasing cyclicality.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
Tata Steel is strategically positioned for growth, leveraging India's robust steel demand, significant cost transformation programmes, and favourable protectionist policies in the EU and UK. The company is expanding its India capacity and optimising operations in its European units to enhance profitability and reduce debt.
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'Except for extremely conservative investors, others can consider allocating 10 to 20 per cent of their portfolio to small caps.'
India's services sector growth rose to a two-month high of 58.5 in January, on faster expansion in new business intake and output, prompting service providers to hire additional staff, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.
Gold prices are likely to trade firm next week as traders await key economic data, including US inflation numbers, for fresh cues on interest rate outlook, while silver may remain volatile amid shifting risk sentiment and speculative activity, analysts said.
Inflation, rate pressure and scams dampen mood, though demand remains strong.
Around 73 per cent of employers interviewed intend to hire freshers during January-June 2026, with recruitment decisions mainly driven by internships and real-world project experience rather than academic credentials alone, a report said on Wednesday. Nearly 3 in 4 employers (73 per cent) intend to hire freshers during January-June this year, marking a 3 per cent increase over the previous half-year, according to TeamLease EdTech Career Outlook Report HY1 2026.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel tanked the most by 4.57 per cent. ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, ITC and Bharat Electronics were among the gainers.
The selloff in domestic information technology stocks intensified on Friday, with the Nifty IT index sliding as much as 5.2 per cent during the session before paring losses to close 1.44 per cent lower.
A strong third-quarter (October-December/Q3) performance for 2025-26 (FY26) has helped the stock of India's largest listed pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, gain about 7 per cent since the start of February.
Stock market investors this week would track the renewed tariff tensions between the US and China, domestic inflation data, besides, quarterly earnings from blue-chips HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries would also drive the momentum in equities, analysts said.
After three consecutive months of heavy selling, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the first week of February, infusing more than Rs 8,100 crore in Indian equities, aided by improving risk sentiment, along with a trade deal with the US.
